{"id":497,"date":"2018-01-04T13:50:23","date_gmt":"2018-01-04T12:50:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/?p=497"},"modified":"2018-01-04T17:21:09","modified_gmt":"2018-01-04T16:21:09","slug":"important-step-forward-to-recurrence-analysis-of-data-with-uncertainties","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/?p=497","title":{"rendered":"Important step forward to recurrence analysis of data with uncertainties"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In a new publication we propose a novel approach for analysing data with uncertainties, which is typical, e.g., in palaeoclimate observations. A time series of single values is replaced by a time series of probabilities; the binary matrix representation of recurrences is then replaced by\u00a0 a matrix of probability values, which represent that a recurrence at a certain time appears. This approach is the base for a novel transition test, applying concepts from recurrence and complex network analysis. We demonstrate the potentials on examples from present-day climate (ENSO), palaeoclimate (Indian summer monsoon), and stock markets.<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_502\" style=\"width: 498px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/feature_image.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-502\" class=\" wp-image-502\" src=\"https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/feature_image-300x112.png\" alt=\"probability series\" width=\"488\" height=\"182\" srcset=\"https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/feature_image-300x112.png 300w, https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/feature_image-768x287.png 768w, https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/feature_image.png 1020w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 488px) 100vw, 488px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-502\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Time series of probability distributions of proxy values, allowing for uncertainty analysis.<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/center>Open access: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-017-02456-6\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-017-02456-6<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a new publication we propose a novel approach for analysing data with uncertainties, which is typical, e.g., in palaeoclimate observations. A time series of single values is replaced by a time series of probabilities; the binary matrix representation of recurrences is then replaced by\u00a0 a matrix of probability values, which represent that a recurrence [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-497","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-paper"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/497","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=497"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/497\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":503,"href":"https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/497\/revisions\/503"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=497"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=497"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quest.pik-potsdam.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=497"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}